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    Automaker Viability Deadline In Focus

    February 16th, 2009 by CA Editors


    Sulaman Chaudhry and Andy Cole send: This should be a very interesting week for a number of reasons, the most important being the deadline for the automakers. There’s also a ton of economic data due out this week, so make sure to keep an eye on that. We’ll be looking at three charts tonight:

    The S&P continues to look pretty bearish. It has been trading in a range of 800-900 for some time now. We’ve been saying for a few months now that a retest of 739 is in the picture, but the bulls have been able to hold this market up fairly consistently around the 800 area. So the trade for us continues to be short at the 50-day. As for the longer side of the trade, we’ll save that for gold.

    Gold (ETF ticker: GLD) is beginning to look interesting again here. After a surge of buying above $92.5, we’ve seen a low volume sell off back to $92.5 and if that support continues to hold, we could see some more buying come in. As a long term investment, Gold looks excellent.

    This is a two year chart of the VIX using weekly timeframes. There is a definite triangle formation in the works here, and we believe that it is only a matter of time before this breaks chart breaks out. Given the current economic climate, as well as Obama’s so-called stimulus, we believe that this will be a break to the upside rather than the downside as this market makes its way back to 739. One would think that would also clear the way for a nice move in Gold.

    Simply put, we are short equities, long Gold, and long volatility as we go into next week.

    Anyone willing to place any bets on whether or not the automakers have done enough to stay viable? Probably not, but will that be enough to prevent them from recieving more tax dollars? With Pelosi and Co. running things in Washington, I think we all know the answer to that one.

    Good luck.

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