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    Food for Thought: China, Credit Spreads, Asset Allocation

    November 28th, 2008 by James Cullen

    Here’s a few ideas, some light reading, and a video clip or two to digest along with the Thanksgiving leftovers:

  • The other day, China aggressively cut interest rates, ostensibly to “promote stable credit growth,” as well as cutting reserve requirements for banks to free up additional capital for lending. This, along with the pricing for crude in East Asia, suggests that economic growth in China is falling off a cliff just as it is elsewhere.


    via Macro Man

    This couples with an observation by James Chanos of Kynikos that China’s GDP reports smack of 1990s earnings management. He thinks hedge fund deleveraging is overbought as an explanation for why the market is performing so poorly, and that the real reason is simply that there’s too much uneconomic activity going on.

    via Todd Sullivan

    The original article linked to above says that Chinese GDP is still expected to register 9%. It might register 9%, but is it actually 9%? The data suggests that China’s strength is an illusion, although they still do have substantial savings to fall back on.

  • Spreads on corporate debt have tightened a quick 45 bps to around 235 bps. Credit protection continues to be inverted, with much higher prices for shorter-duration contracts of 1-3 years than longer-duration contracts of 7-10 years.

    Even the spreads on high yield debt have come down lately.

    The AAA-rated tranche of commercial mortgage-backeds that many were buzzing about fell precipitously from its high, only to rebound slightly. It is still off more than 150 bps from the high of 847.5, down to 679. The action in spreads is similar across lower rated tranches as well.

  • Because I still have cash laying around, in addition to quarterly interest payments, I’m trying to figure out where to go from here. I will be the first to admit I don’t have anything resembling a balanced portfolio, but this from Jeremy Grantham at GMO has me leaning toward vanilla large cap equities, where his firm expects a base 10.4% annualized seven year return. Now, I continue to look around high-yielding alternate assets as well as some of the more distressed corporate debt areas – but so far, timber is the only real area of interest.
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    Read more on Investing in China, Asset Allocation, Food & Beverage at Wikinvest

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