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Auto Parts: An Industry for a Poor Economy

September 11th, 2008 by CA Editors



Mark Perkins sends: When consumers have less money in their pockets and are hesitant to spend on big purchases one area that feels this effect is new car sales. So what are they doing with their old cars? Fixing them up! Here are some ideas that play off this.

AutoZone (AZO)
Sales are up nicely and earnings are up. They throw off a bunch of free cash flow that will continue to go to future buybacks and dividends. A PE around 11x this year’s earnings it looks like a fair price.

Advance Auto Parts (AAP)
Good fundamentals just like AutoZone. Tons of free cash flow. Looks good on a pull-back.

Possible Turnaround: Pep Boys (PBY)
Same store sales are down which is not good. They have reduced some of their long-term debt recently which is good and speaks well to a possible turnaround or at the least preventing the catastrophic. PBY sports a dividend yield approaching 3%. They have been cutting costs and it is reflected in the last quarter along with reducing their interest on debt. EPS is actually up year over year! They also have no big loans due until 2013, buying them time.

The stock has recently plunged on gigantic volume to around $6.30. The stock has been punished so badly recently that it is trading for less than its net tangible assets per share of $8.00. I suspect traders will be bottom fishing soon at these prices.

The Ugly: Midas (MDS)
They have a ton of debt that I don’t like at all and earnings are down. Right now there are better companies with better margins and returns on capital like AutoZone and Advance Auto Parts to put money to work.

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