With stocks like USG and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), I’ve tried to set an example for Ben Bernanke and be ahead of the curve on the moves I see happening in the building materials and retail groups, respectively. While I wholeheartedly feel there is still much value to be realized in that area, I think half the fun is trying to find what’s next – because after all, this is a game about looking forward, even if I do it in my own stubbornly conservative way.

Here is my current thinking:

Many of the non-sexy, moderate-growth tech stocks are very attractively priced relative to the market, not to mention historical norms. These are the kinds of companies that are more levered to business than the consumer, and because of their integral roles in their respective niches, they should benefit from an early-stage recovery in executive confidence and business spending.

So what does this category of mine encompass?

Think the big, multi-national blue chips of tech. They tend to be well-capitalized, trade at mid-double digit earnings multiples, and should have plenty of room to grow as we enter the next upswing of the economic cycle. I’ll say this again: I’m early on this, and it is intentional. I want to get it on the radar right now, so as mid-year approaches there is something to refine and really work with. But anyways, the economic recovery…

In short, there will be one. And when businesses realize we are in a new expansionary cycle, capital expenditures suddenly look more appealing. Two beneficiaries:

-IBM, including net debt, trades at 16.5x trailing earnings. They have a strong track record for double-digit growth – which should continue – and generating more than $10 billion a year in free cash flow, which goes to fund a healthy buyback and 1.5% dividend. IBM’s Services segment really excites me, and the global business in particular has been on fire as witnessed from the results from the most recent quarter.

-Accenture (ACN) is a name I was behind a few months ago, although my enthusiasm dwindled as I came to realize the stock was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. Now, however… ACN trades for 13.5x trailing earnings net of cash, even after a clean beat on estimates and raised guidance in the last quarter. Accenture looks to be able to consistently generate $2 billion in free cash flow, putting the stock at just over an 8x FCF multiple. As compared to IBM, this is a more pure-play on consulting and outsourcing services – again, a trait I see becoming very attractive to the market as we turn the corner on the economic trough.

Another thing I like to see is two category killers trading right around 52-week lows. These seem marginally more speculative, but I think they fit well with the unified theme of blue-chip tech:

-Cisco (CSCO) reports earnings today in what will be a heavily-watched event and call. The stock currently trades for about 15x earnings net of cash, and Cisco is another tech cash cow that can turn nearly $10 billion in free cash flow in a year. While I’d like to see how this stock closes out the week post-earnings in what has been a very rough earnings environment, this is a fairly high probability gamble to buy on dips.

-Intel (INTC) is a stock that really got whacked in January, and now trades for 15x earnings net of cash. While I’m not thrilled by the capital intensive nature of the semiconductor business, there are worse businesses to be in and Intel has been the proven winner in this sector. With the soft guidance for 2008, I think this stock will offer more time to get in than the others, but with the number of variables in play that could change quickly. Still, I remain cautiously optimistic that as I comment on these stocks over the next several months, Intel will remain in the positive category.

And as an additional note, I would have included Microsoft (MSFT) in here, but that whole Yahoo (YHOO) acquisition deal knocks them off that list until I can get a better idea about just how egregiously they overpaid for a second-tier company.

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