Dispelling the All-Time High Hysteria
James Cullen
Against my better judgment, I’m going to begin a post with “There has been much talk on CNBC of late…”
…About the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting all-time highs. Perhaps the uncharted territory scares people, or perhaps it just gives the CNBC crew a talking point. Either way, they don’t need much motivation to keep bringing it back up. But what does an index being at an all-time high really mean? I’d hesitate to say that it is really relevant either way; it seems more like just another price point to me.
Consider the following chart, where the black lines represent a day when the Dow Industrials reached an “all-time closing high.” If you started selling way back when, you’ve left a lot of money on the table. I realize the DJIA isn’t the best index because it is price weighted, but there is an enormous amount of data on it going back to 1928, so it is useful for illustrative purposes.

Obviously, the best course of action isn’t to default to worry when stocks are near all-time highs. With there only being 30 stocks in the Dow, it isn’t very difficult to draw a rough sketch of the overall valuation, and I think several Dow components are cheap, including Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wal-Mart (WMT), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and AIG.
While I hesitate to say everything is great for the Dow Industrial Average as a whole (mainly because of the asymmetric weightings and my gravitating to lower-weighted stocks), it is doubtless that the Dow components are excellent companies that just about everyone would be well-off owning. While there is going to be uncertainty and swirling rumors about economic health, the consumer, and the like, betting against these companies doesn’t seem like a high-percentage proposition.
Of course, there are plenty of opportunities outside of the Dow stocks that are also trading at 52-week highs, just like there are good stocks at 52-week lows. Copper, gold, and - because the per-pound price is now so high, it’s worth mentioning - molybdenum producer Freeport McMoRan (FCX) hit another new high today, and I think FCX is going to $130 (if not higher) as the fundamentals underlying its commodities are still extremely favorable. Infrastructure stock Global Industries (GLBL) is also back near its 52-week high, and has upside from $27 thanks to great business conditions and $500 million net cash included in its $3.2 billion market cap. Lastly, I can’t leave out consulting and outsourcing firm Accenture (ACN), which is one of the best businesses I know of and shouldn’t be trading at a single-digit free cash flow multiple.
See more Uncategorized |
November 2nd, 2007 at 12:34 pm
[...] information - it is just a point of reference, as I tried to demonstrate when talking about all-time highs on the indices. The exception to this was a stock like copper producer Freeport McMoRan (FCX), which I thought was [...]