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    Is It Time to Cash Out of ARLP?

    May 28th, 2007 by Tom Lyons

    With the recent run up of the markets over the past few months, I have decided to take a look at my real money position in Alliance Resource Partners LP. I purchased this stock on 2/27/2007 (the 500 point down day for the Dow) for the price of $35.22 a share. Since this time the stock has risen a considerable amount to $43.48 a share as of the close on 5/25/07. My investment in ARLP has given me a return over twenty percent in a very short time frame, and at this point I feel that it is wise to reevaluate this position and determine if it is time to sell and realize my gains or if I should continue holding the stock.

    First, I will review the reasons why I bought this stock. I originally purchased ARLP while I was anticipating a market downturn and I wanted a stock that had a sizable dividend and good cash flow to back it up. At that time, Alliance Resource Partners had both of these qualities, along with being in the Monthly Top 25 stock screen that ValueStockReports.com runs. With these traits, I decided to further investigate Alliance Resource Partners and after reading the 10-Qs and many analysts’ reports I decided that it was a company that would be able to weather a downward move by the markets. Fast forward to the present, and we see that the downward move never came but my conservative pick is up over twenty percent.

    Now that I am reviewing Alliance Resource Partners again, I will start with what has not changed over the past few months. First, the company still pays a big cash dividend of over 5%. The second reason for investing was the strong cash flow. The cash flow has improved since the time that I made my purchase, but because of the increase in the price of the stock I feel that ARLP has lost the margin of safety that it had before. At the time of my purchase of the stock I had an overall price target of around $43.25 per share for ARLP.

    Now after their latest earnings report, that price target has increased slightly up to $45 dollars a share, and given that the stock has quickly moved from $35 a share to $43, I will be selling ARLP once the stock hits $45.

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    6 Responses

    1. James Cullen Says:

      If anyone is interested in ARLP, I have been closely following the stock along with Tom, and compiled an in-depth research report on the company shortly after he bought it. When you have some time to do a bit of reading (probably about 10 pages), check it out at http://valuestockreports.com/arlp.htm

    2. Bubba Says:

      That is a very attractive dividend. Why not consider just taking all of your profits off the table and see where it goes from there? You’ve still got a 5% cushion with the dividend.

    3. Tom Lyons Says:

      Taking my profits off the table is an option but I feel that once the stock hits a value that I think is its fair value I feel better seliing and looking for a stock that is currently trading at a discount.

    4. Tom Lyons Says:

      I would just like to note that today I sold ARLP when my limit order hit $45.00 a share. While I still think ARLP is a good company I no longer own the stock.

    5. Tim Says:

      You have not posted in awhile. I miss your unique take on the stock market.

    6. James Cullen Says:

      Tim,
      I’ll give Tom a shout-out on your behalf and see if I can’t get inside his head to see what he plans as his next buy…

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